The Blockchain Bitcoin & Crypto Weekly CXO Briefing is all you need to know, each week, jargon free for CXO level business leaders and investors who will use this technology to change the world. Each week we select the 3 news items that matter and explain why and offer one expert opinion.
This is week two. For week one and the intro, please go here.
News Item 1: Bitcoin Pool ViaBTC says no to Segwit
News Decrypted: Last week we reported that a major Bitcoin miner (Bitmain) who has been backing the breakaway group (called Bitcoin Unlimited) has filed for a patent to a technology called ASICBOOST that would be harmed if Bitcoin used a technology called SegWit. For explanations/glossary please go to last week’s post. Our take on last week’s news was that this signaled the last bloody battle in the Bitcoin Civil War and that Bitcoin Core was winning.
The news this week is that another Bitcoin miner is saying no to Segwit.
Our Take: This week’s news seems to indicate the opposite of what we reported last week, but we hold to our conviction. Our take this week is that there are always skirmishes after a war is over. You could also say “it ain’t over till the fat lady sings” and that there is always some risk, but that does not invalidate that there is more upside than downside. If you read this week’s news item below the headline, it is more “not yet” than a no, despite the headline. You often get “headline negotiations” ie making a tough public statement followed by private negotiations.
News: Billionaire hedge fund investor Mike Novogratz, who made it into the Forbes billionaire list in 2008, revealed that he holds 10 percent of his net worth in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Decrypted: Bitcoin price continues to rise and so we get forecasts that it will continue to rise. There are many more stories like this that are along the lines of “follow the brilliant investor leader”. Novogratz also invested in Ether. Another high profile investor making bullish statements is Tim Draper.
Our take: These investors are talking their book and they bought when the price was much lower, but that does not invalidate what they are saying. With the Bitcoin Civil War nearly over, there is more upside than downside, but nothing goes up in a straight line. A major Bitcoin hacking story is likely in 2017 and that will be a buying opportunity. It depends on your time horizon. If you view buying Bitcoin like a 10 year bet on a startup, these fluctuations are irrelevant.
News: Just because you use bitcoin to do something illegal, does not give you a defense.
Decrypted: This is only relevant as it drives mainstream sentiment and regulation. If the headline was “Criminals who deal in dollar bills in Florida could soon be busted for money laundering” it would not be significant.
Our Take: Regulators are in a quandary. On the one hand, bitcoin should be like cash – it is irrelevant as a defense for illegal activity. That is what this week’s news is about. On the other hand, banks and governments want to have control over cash and so don’t want bitcoin to be a legal currency and tax authorities prefer to see it like a commodity and to tax based on capital gains. The last sentence in the news article is interesting “But critics say the law could deliver a chilling effect on the bitcoin, which can be valuable in promoting commerce between Florida and countries such as Venezuela, where traditional banking systems have gone awry.” In short, money laundering out is bad, but money laundering in is good.
Why it is worth listening to: Ethereum is the only crypto currency with a market cap even comparable to Bitcoin and Ethereum is building the world’s first decentralized operating system.
Our take: Ether, like all Altcoins, have done well price-wise during the Bitcoin Civil War. If that is over, bitcoin price will rise and much of that will come from people converting Altcoins to Bitcoin. Ethereum could be the one exception to that. However, as a reality check it worth noting that few mainstream people have heard of Ethereum – this is reserved for crypto true believers . Also, the news last week was more about traction for Sidechains, which takes away some of the programmability benefits of Ethereum and to have a major differentiator, Ethereum needs to prove Proof Of Stake as an alternative to Proof Of Work and there is still real technical risk in that. If you love the idea of the world’s first decentralized operating system (I do), you may want to buy the Ether currency. As an investor, Ether at current price has a lot more risk than Bitcoin.
Bernard Lunn is a Fintech thought-leader and deal-maker.
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