The history of reserve currencies has been told many times. The leading economic power hands the reserve currency baton to the emerging economic power. The last baton pass was from UK to USA. So will the next baton pass be from USA to China?
That would be history repeating. My thesis is that it will rhyme not repeat.
China is absolutely NOT ready to accept the reserve currency baton from America; the Yuan is not even freely traded. Nor is America willing to pass the baton to China; the new cold war is getting more intense (Britain may have been bankrupted by American help in WW2 but that was a deal willingly done by allies).
My thesis is:
A. There will be two reserve currencies (not one) operating in two spheres of influence (America and China). For example, Iran is in the China sphere and will sell oil to China in Yuan.
B. Both reserve currencies will be CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currencies).
The New Cold War will be mostly fought on the economic battle ground with a lot of use of soft power to entice the talent needed to win those battles.
Some countries are clearly in one sphere based on being threatened by the other side. Other countries will negotiate the best terms to come into one sphere or choose a side role as neutral and non-aligned.
Maybe China will make the Yuan more globally attractive by tying it to a hard asset such as Gold or Oil or Bitcoin (but that is highly speculative and not core to my thesis).
The New Cold War, like the Old, will use a lot of cryptography.
When we use a term such as New Cold War it invites comparison to Old Cold War which America won on the economic and soft power fronts. Who will win the New Cold War? This history book has not yet been written.
Daily Fintech’s original insight is made available to you for US$143 a year (which equates to $2.75 per week). $2.75 buys you a coffee (maybe), or the cost of a week’s subscription to the global Fintech blog – caffeine for the mind that could be worth $ millions.