No I do NOT know the timing or how far each bull market will go. Sorry. Anybody who tells you they can probably also has a bridge to sell you.
I can tell you how this Bitcoin bull market will end and the next one will start.
This Bitcoin bull market will end with two armies of suits fighting.
One set of suits belongs to the corporates and institutional investors buying into Bitcoin. The other set of suits belongs to the governments who want to protect their monopoly on creating money.
The governments suits will win this fight, bringing this bull market to an end.
Governments will fight Bitcoin through regulators. This would be ineffective if governments were trying to control how billions of citizens use Bitcoin as they do not need regulatory approval. However the corporates and institutional investors need government regulatory approval. The corporates and institutional investors want to make money from Bitcoin, but they want to protect their core business from regulators even more; the latter is an existential threat to their business.
This is another reason that Coinbase is so interesting. See the Coinbase 4 parter for background. Coinbase is crypto in a suit. Coinbase is a Regulated On Ramp to a global unregulated/permissionless network. For Coinbase, crypto is core. If regulators decide to shut down Coinbase it will be n existential threat to their business.
This is the “then they fight you” phase. Which means there will be another bull market “and then you win
The past Bitcoin bull markets have been driven by very different characters;
- 2013 was driven by cyphperpunks.
- 2017 was driven by retail investors aiming to get rich quick.
- 2020/1 is driven by corporates and institutional investors.
The next Bitcoin bull market will driven by millions of citizens in failed states with their Fiat currencies falling into hyperinflation. The governments in those failed states will try to stop Bitcoin but millions of citizens will ignore their government if Bitcoin helps them put food on the table.
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