The Filecoin ICO is chewing up a lot of bandwidth this week, but I think that KIK is the one to watch.
Starting with Filecoin, there is lots to like – great team, ambitious tech goal, key protocol for decentralised Internet, but I would not bet on it for these reasons:
- lower cost digital storage is not high on most people’s worry list.
- Jeff Bezos (AWS) is a fierce competitor who wins price wars and takes on Walmart and China. He coined the line – “your fat margin is my opportunity” – and he has not left any fat margin to exploit.
- the Filecoin tech is unproven and the marketing challenge (needing to scale to billions to be meaningful) is horrible
- there are other viable vendors in the beat AWS by going P2P game such as Storj.
I hope Filecoin make it but the odds look lousy.
KIK is interesting because it has nothing to do with blockchain or decentralisation. It is one of many viable companies that would like IPO as an alternative to trade sale, but that are dammed up in front of a wall that excludes all but the most massive companies. KIK did a Pre ICO round that looks a lot like a Pre IPO round in ye olden days. This is a sign of ICO transitioning to mainstream – real securities sold to real investors in a legal framework. Whether it is a good deal and a great business is another matter. The key is that ICO is replacing IPO as a viable exit and competing with M&A and PE. That is a mega trend shift. Traditional exchanges and all who work in that ecosystem are facing disruption.
Will be watching this one with keen interest.
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