Which Chinese Market Place Lenders will emerge from consolidation?

industry-consolidation-graphic.png

Image source

This is part 2 of our research into Chinese Market Place Lenders. Part 1 is here.

Ppdai is credited with being the first MPL (then called P2P Lending) in China, following close behind pioneers in UK and USA. Since then, literally thousands of platforms emerged. This is clearly unsustainable. Market Place Lending is a networks effects business. More borrowers lead to more lenders and vice versa. So the thousands of MPL platforms in China has to come down to a handful of companies.

Top of the Pops

The top 20 platforms as tracked by Wangdaizhijia and reported by Lendit are:

1 Hongling Capital
2 Lufax
3 PPmoney
4 Wzdai
5 Weidai
6 Xinhehui
7 Yooli
8 Jimubox
9 Jinxin99
10 Renrendai
11 Srong
12 Yirendai
13 Xiangshang360
14 Edai
15 Niwodai
16 Touna.cn
17 Eloancn
18 Qianbaba
19 Itouzi
20 Tuandai

Source: Wangdaizhijia

The only names that resonate in the West are Yirendai (because they did an IPO in America) and Lufax (because they are publicly mulling an IPO in Hong Kong). Lufax is being valued almost 10x Yirendai and ranks second place vs 12th for Yirendai. So Yirendau could be like Ondeck vs Lending Club, first out of the IPO gate but small compared the market leader and it may be acquisition bait during the consolidation phase.

The IPO process for Lufax may bring a) capital b) more mature processes (due to public scrutiny) and c) consumer name recognition. For the latter, the Hong Kong venue for Lufax makes the most sense.

Here are the top 3 ranked by Transaction Volume:

Company Transaction Vol No. of borrowers  
 
Hongling Capital 300,401 3,944  
 
Lufax 137,250 24,984  
 
PPmoney 130,909 5,506  
 

Here are the top 3 ranked by No of Borrowers:

Company Transaction Vol No. of borrowers  
 
Xiangshang360 46,872 30,497  
 
Luffa 137,250 24,984  
 
Weidai 83,250 11,550  
 

(Yirendai is 4th).

Note LUFAX in second place on both scores. If their IPO in Hong Kong goes well, they look like a strong contender.

What role will BAT (Baidu Alibaba TenCent) play?

These are behemoths by any definition. In simple market cap terms (rounded to nearest $ billion as of Oct 2016):

Baidu = 61

Alibaba = 263

TenCent = 258

In comparison Lending Club = 2 and Lufax (pending IPO) = 18.

How much these giants want to get into Lending is the key question. All three have launched online banks, with Baidu the most recent into the game.

So, we can expect plenty of excitement as the MPL market in China matures.

Daily Fintech Advisers provides strategic consulting to organizations with business and investment interests in Fintech & operates the Fintech Genome P2P Knowledge platform.

One thought on “Which Chinese Market Place Lenders will emerge from consolidation?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s