Top 10 Fintech Predictions for 2016


By Bernard Lunn

  1. Bitcoin price will be volatile (no duh) but will end 2016 not much different from 2015. Bitcoin will fall deep into the slough of despond and entrepreneurs will avoid any mention of Bitcoin when fund raising.
  1. XBRL will start climbing out of the slough of despond but won’t be recognized yet as moving into the plateau of productivity.
  1. Momentum Capital (short term hype chasing) into Fintech will slow down but Innovation Capital (funding long term value creation) will increase because the reality of the opportunity is not impacted by the hype cycle.
  1. More investment will flow into Underbanked as investors see the scale of the opportunity.
  1. Consolidation will start in Lending Marketplaces. There will be a fierce battle for a winner takes most network effects market (similar to what we saw in ride sharing in 2015).
  1. The strange inversion we saw in 2015, when private companies were valued higher (on paper at least) than public companies, will end in 2016.The headlines will refer to Unicorpses.
  1. Analysts covering Banks will start referencing Fintech disruption when referring to a drop in profits at a major bank.
  1. Moves by Big Tech and Big Retail into Financial Services will eclipse moves by Fintech startups and will worry bankers a lot more.
  1. Calls for regulating Fintech startups more intensely will follow at least one high profile blow up.
  1. The Great Convergence between Banks and Fintechs commences, as both get judged on the same metrics by consumers,regulators and investors.

Daily Fintech Advisers provide strategic consulting to organizations with business and investment interests in Fintech.


  1. Are you sticking with #1? Did you know about the July inflation halving when you wrote this?

    • Got that one wrong. To do with China capital controls or mining rules? What do you think?

      • Well China controls have been in place for a long time. I don’t think there have been significant changes there recently although I could be wrong. Every 4 years the rate of Bitcoin inflation is cut in half and that’s due next month. As you indicated, that inflation takes the form of Bitcoin rewards automatically paid to miners.

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